A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
